P rice growth measured by 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Sotheby’s Mei Moses was consistent with the prior five seasoꦚns of New York auctions. This fact holds despite lower auction totals in November’s major Impressionist & Modern and Cont𒊎emporary art auctions in New York.
Sotheby’s Mei Moses (SMM) price indices measure art market demand by u꧟sing repeat sales of the same work of art sold at multiple public auctions.
C🥂ontemporary artworks achieved a healthy median Compound Annual Return (CAR) of 6.9 percent over a median holding period (the time between auction sales) of 13 years – which is based on 130 works that resold, utilizing Sotheby’s Mei Moses.* This is consistent with past auctions since 2017, with SMM CARs of 6–8 percent.
For 230 Impressionist and Modern artwoꦓrks that resold this past week, the median CAR was 2.5 percent, consistent with the prior five seasons in the 2–4 percent range.
In November, Impressionist and Modern art pieces were held a median of 23 years between auctions – ten years longer than the holding period for Contemporary works, which held a median of 13 years. Collectors are keeping Impressionist and Modern artworks for an increasingly longer time, as the median steadily increased from 14 years, as shown in the chart below. Contemporary art continues to return to market at a median of 11–15 years, as seen over the past four𝕴 auction seasons.
Female artists continue meteoric auction growth
Female artists continue to realize accelerating price growth, exceeding that of male artists, according to a 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:study by Sotheby’s Mei Moses published in ꦓAugust 2019. Between 2012 and 2018ꦬ, prices for works by female artists rose by an average 72.9 percent, while art by male artists appreciated by only 8.3 percent.
In November 2019, female artists’ art earned several of the highest price appreciations – underscoring the radical shifts in market perception, par🅷ticularly for some of the most widely-ce🐭lebrated female artists.
168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Tamara de Lempicka’s 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:La Tunique Rose set a record for the artist and was the most expensive work by a female artist sold in November 2019, garnering $13.4 million ($6–8 million estimate) at Sotheby’s. The work had remained in the same collection since 1983, where it was purchased at a Christie’s sale of Fine Art Nouveau and Art Deco sale in October 1983 for $82,500 ($60,000-$80,000 estimate). At a 15.2 percent CAR, or 162x price appreciation, this lesser-known painting outpaced 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Claude Monet’s 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Meules which was purchased only three years later in 1986 for $2.5 million at Christie’s New York and sold at Sotheby’s New York in May 2019 for $110.7 million, earning a 12.1 percent CAR.
Of the season, two exemplars stand out, both demonstrating the aforementioned rapid price growth. 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Lee Krasner’s 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Sun Woman I sold for $7.4 million ($6 million–8 million estimate) at Sotheby’s Contemporary Art Evening Auction on 15 November, realizing an astounding 32.4 percent CAR since it was last seen at auction in November 2011. Then, it sold for $782,500 ($600,000–800,000 estimate) at Sotheby’s New York Contemporary Art Day Sale. 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Joan Mitchell’s 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Saint Martin la Garenne IX exceeded estimates in Sotheby’s Contemporary Art Day Sale in November 2019, selling for $2.9 million ($1–1.5 million estimate) and achieving a 26.5 percent CAR, subsequent to being purchased at ꦫthe🅘 Collection Marcel Brient – La Page Française sale at Sotheby’s Paris in September 2012 for €432,750 ($559,230, €120,000–180,000 estimate).
African American artists also surpassed estimates and records this November. Notable sales at Sotheby’s include 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Charles White’s 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Ye Shall Inherit the Earth ($1.76 million vs. $700,000 high estimate), 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Norman Lewis’s 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Ritual ($2.78 million vs. $1 million high estimate), and the 2nd highest auction price for 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Kerry James Marshall for 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Vignette ($18.5 million vs 7.5 million high estimate). However, all these works appeared at auction for the first time, illuminating how this market is rapidl🌳y growing.
The predictability and unpredictability of the art market
Sotheby’s Mei Moses can predict selling prices based on historic trends. When actuꩲal hammer prices vary significantly, it is a sign of a shift in long term demand.
Sotheby’s Mei Moses was on target in predicting that 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Vincent van Gogh’s 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Paysan brûlant de mauvaises herbes would sell well above its $600,000–800,000 estimate. This rare work from Van Gogh’s time in Drenthe is only the sixth Van Gogh painting from 1883 or earlier to come to market in the pas📖t decade, according tไo Artnet. These sales’ range reflect the historically lower demand for Van Gogh’s early works. SMM’s estimate was $3.95 million given its prior price of $440,000 in 1989 at Christies New York, and the piece sold for $3.14 million to two Dutch museums, the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam and the Drents Museum in Assen. Given this outcome, it’s fair to assess that market demand for Van Gogh’s earlier works may be picking up commensurate with his later works.
168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Pablo Picasso, one of the most prolific and well-represented artists at auctions, delivered some surprises at the November auctions. One work, entitled 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Portrait de Lola, soeur de l’artiste was estimated by SMM at $4.73 million in 2019, having been previously purchased in Paris in 1988 for about $1.39 million. It sold right on the SMM estimate, for $4.7 million. 168开奖官方开奖网站查询:Nus, on the other hand, had a sale range of $12–18 million, and a SMM e🐎stimate at the high end, $17.9 million, having been purchased for $6.05 million in 1997. It sold for $9.95 million, showing that forecasts don’t always predict actual results.
*Sotheby’s Mei Moses continues to use the methodology designed by professors Michael Moses and J.P. Mei iဣn 2001 of auction sales at Sotheby’s & Christie’s with prior auc𒉰tion prices at any auction house publicly available and excludes bought-in lots.
